Week 41: Baltic premium persists
Baltic zones traded at a 35–40 EUR/MWh premium to Finland as Estlink capacity was reduced for inspection.
Sample commentary: the figures and events in this piece are invented to demonstrate the format.
Overview
Week 41 was dominated by reduced import capacity into the Baltics. With one Estlink cable at reduced rating, EE, LV and LT decoupled from FI for 74% of hours.
Drivers
- Interconnector availability. FI→EE ran at the reduced limit almost every hour.
- Gas-fired margin. Baltic thermal plants set the price in most peak hours.
- Solar fade. Shorter days removed the midday price dip seen through September.
Outlook
Full Estlink capacity returns on 24 October. Until then, expect the Baltic premium to remain above 30 EUR/MWh on low-wind days.