Winter 2026/27 outlook
Hydro balance is near normal, but lower nuclear availability and new interconnector capacity point to tighter southern zones this winter.
Sample commentary: the figures and events in this piece are invented to demonstrate the format.
Base case
We expect the system price to average 60–70 EUR/MWh over December–February, with the south–north spread widening during cold, still spells.
Risks
| Risk | Direction | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| Cold snap with low wind | ↑ southern prices | Medium |
| Nuclear restart delays | ↑ SE3, FI | Medium |
| Wet early winter | ↓ Norway | Low |
Method
This outlook combines reservoir statistics, the published maintenance calendar and a weather-ensemble view of wind output. It is updated monthly.